Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi‐model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance

In this paper we explore the new possibilities for early crop yield assessment at the local scale arising from the availability of dynamic crop growth models and of downscaled multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts.We compare the use of the latter with other methods, based on crop growth models driven by observed climatic data only. The soil water balance model developed and used at ARPA Emilia-Romagna (CRITERIA) was integrated with crop growth routines from the model WOFOST 7.1. Some validation runs were first carried out and we verified with independent field data that the new integrated model satisfactorily simulated above-ground biomass and leaf area index. The model was then used to test the feasibility of using downscaled multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts, coming from the DEMETER European research project, in order to obtain early (i.e. 90, 60 and 30 d before harvest) yield assessments for winter wheat in northern Italy. For comparison, similar runs with climatology instead of hindcasts were also carried out. For the same purpose, we also produced six simple linear regression models of final crop yields on within season (end of March, April and May) storage organs and above-ground biomass values. Median yields obtained using downscaled DEMETER hindcasts always outperformed the simple regression models and were substantially equivalent to the climatology runs, with the exception of the June experiment, where the downscaled seasonal hindcasts were clearly better than all other methods in reproducing the winter wheat yields simulated with observed weather data. The crop growth model output dispersion was almost always significantly lower than the dispersion of the downscaled ensemble seasonal hindcast used as input for crop simulations

Honeybee Colony Vibrational Measurements to Highlight the Brood Cycle

Insect pollination is of great importance to crop production worldwide and honey bees are amongst its chief facilitators. Because of the decline of managed colonies, the use of sensor technology is growing in popularity and it is of interest to develop new methods which can more accurately and less invasively assess honey bee colony status. Our approach is to use accelerometers to measure vibrations in order to provide information on colony activity and development. The accelerometers provide amplitude and frequency information which is recorded every three minutes and analysed for night time only. Vibrational data were validated by comparison to visual inspection data, particularly the brood development. We show a strong correlation between vibrational amplitude data and the brood cycle in the vicinity of the sensor. We have further explored the minimum data that is required, when frequency information is also included, to accurately predict the current point in the brood cycle. Such a technique should enable beekeepers to reduce the frequency with which visual inspections are required, reducing the stress this places on the colony and saving the beekeeper time

Quantitative Historical Change in Bumblebee (Bombus spp.) Assemblages of Red Clover Fields

Flower visiting insects provide a vitally important pollination service for many crops and wild plants. Recent decline of pollinating insects due to anthropogenic modification of habitats and climate, in particular from 1950's onwards, is a major and widespread concern. However, few studies document the extent of declines in species diversity, and no studies have previously quantified local abundance declines. We here make a quantitative assessment of recent historical changes in bumblebee assemblages by comparing contemporary and historical survey data. species observed in the 1930's, five species were not observed at present. The latter were all long-tongued, late-emerging species.Because bumblebees are important pollinators, historical changes in local bumblebee assemblages are expected to severely affect plant reproduction, in particular long-tubed species, which are pollinated by long-tongued bumblebees

Culture and low-carbon energy transitions

How does culture influence low-carbon energy transitions? How can insights about cultural influences guide energy planners and policymakers trying to stimulate transitions, particularly at a time of rapid technological change? This Review examines the influence of culture on a selection of low-carbon technologies and behavioural practices that reflect different dimensions of sustainability. Based on a typology of low-carbon technology and behaviour, we explore the cultural dimensions of four specific cases: eco-driving, ridesharing, automated vehicles and whole-house retrofits. We conclude with recommendations for those seeking to analyse, understand, develop, demonstrate and deploy low-carbon innovations for sustainable energy transitions

A participative procedure to select indicators of sustainable urban mobility policies

Starting from an original framework based on four dimensions and thirteen objectives of sustainable urban mobility policies, this paper advocates the selection of a core set of performance indicators founded on a participative procedure. Citizen participation and stakeholder involvement is made possible by a national sample survey and a deliberative multi-criteria analysis, respectively. Such a procedure is applied to the Italian case and it shows that the set of indicators based on citizen evaluations radically differs from that based on stakeholders’ opinions - citizens are more oriented towards reducing private transport costs, air pollution and traffic accidents; stakeholders are more in favour of improving car-free accessibility and reducing the consumption of land and public space generated by urban mobility. For further testing at a local scale, a more articulated procedure is proposed in order to increase the role of citizens and to help generate unequivocal results.urban mobility, sustainability indicators, participation, stakeholders, national survey

Can national survey data be used to select a core set of indicators for monitoring the sustainability of urban mobility policies?

The gradual expansion of urban transport systems brings a series of undesirable socio-economic and environmental impacts that affect the quality of life in cities. Assessing the performance of transport policies is therefore crucial for attaining a sustainable urban development. Adopting an integrated expert-led and participatory- based ?“bottom-up?” approach this paper deals with the issue by examining the feasibility of using citizens?’ opinions to select a core set of indicators for monitoring the sustainability of urban mobility policies. A national survey has been carried out to gather citizens?’ perceptions over a basic conceptual framework of dimensions and objectives of urban mobility policies in order to provide a ranking of the associated performance indicators. The results showed that different sets of performance indicators may be chosen according to city size and transport modes mostly used by citizens.urban mobility, sustainability indicators, participation, national survey on mobility of italians

Wheat growth simulation and yield prediction with seasonal forecasts

Wheat is a major winter crop in northern Italy. Italian agricultural markets and government agencies would undoubtedly benefit from the early availability of wheat yield forecasts at the regional and national scales as useful support in decision making. In this study we tested the skill of seasonal weather forecasts, in combination with observed weather data, as input to a crop model working in water limited conditions. The observations were used to simulate wheat growth from sowing up to 2 months before harvest, while seasonal forecasts were used afterwards to predict final yields. Observations included climatic variables and water table levels from a location in the Po river plain (Bologna, Italy), while seasonal forecasts came from the Demeter EU project and consisted of a dataset of downscaled multi-model ensemble hindcasts. The Criteria/Wofost simulation model used for this work includes a new numerical scheme for the soil water balance (Criteria) and incorporates a modified version of theWofost crop growth model. Median wheat yield forecasts were compared with field data collected at the experimental farm of Bologna University during 1977\u20131987. Forecast yields showed satisfactory agreement with observed ones (MBE 816 kg ha-1RMSE 1185 kg ha-1, R2 0.65**). In our view, with this result there is a good prospect for extending the proposed methodology to the regional and national scale for the production of operational seasonal forecasts of agricultural yields